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Zogby Tracking Poll: Bush 45%, Kerry 45%"
YOUNGSTOWN, Ohio -- Polling the polls -- summarizing the latest results, that is -- finds the Tin Man likely to beat the Scarecrow, according to Zogby, yet the race between George W. Bush and John Kerry is back to a dead heat. Confused?This morning the Reuters/Zogby three-day tracking poll reported that Bush and Kerry are back to 45% apiece -- a three-point decline for the president since Friday's results, when Bush led Kerry, 48% to 44%.But perhaps more telling, according to pollster John Zogby, is who tops the poll when the race is between the Tin Man and the Scarecrow. Zogby appeared at a press event this weekend on behalf of the Reuters News Service and recounted asking likely voters in 2000 to choose between the "Tin Man, with all brains and no heart, or the Scarecrow, who is with all heart and no brains.' The result was 46.2% selected the Scarecrow (seen to depict Bush) presidential candidate, 46.2% the Tin Man (Al Gore).This year the Tin Man (Kerry) leads the Scarecrow by 9%, which is why Zogby told reporters in Singapore he believes Kerry will win Nov. 2 if voter turnout is high. If not, Bush will win, he said.Today's installment of the Zogby/Reuters tracking poll, 14 days before the election, finds Kerry leading among Catholics, and Bush and Kerry tied on personal favorability."If I were to factor in the leaners in the three-day track, it would be Kerry 47.2% to Bush 46.6%," Zogby said. "I'm not sure it's wise to put leaners in the equation at this point in the campaign because it is artificial -- but that is how close all of this is proving to be," the pollster continued. "This is the same kind of roller coaster ride we saw in 2000 with the lead changing back and forth and neither candidate able to open up any kind of lead."Zogby's tracking poll disagrees with the results of the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll, which shows Bush leading Kerry among likely voters by 52% to 44%. The Gallup Poll was taken Thursday through Saturday, Oct. 14 through Oct. 16, among 788 likely voters. Its margin of error is plus or minus 4%.The Zogby/Reuters telephone poll of 1,211 likely voters was conducted Friday through Sunday, Oct. 15 to Oct. 17. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.Compare polls at www.pollingreport.com Visit Zogby International at www.zogby.com"