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Zogby Poll Puts Kerry-Edwards Up 2 Points
UTICA, N.Y. -- The newly announced Democratic presidential ticket of Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards enters the race with a two-point lead over President George W. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney -- 48% to 46%, according to a new Zogby America poll. The poll of likely voters was conducted July 6 and 7.In a one on one match-up with the president, Kerry leads by two points (46%-44%), with 7% undecided. Kerry shows no significant bounce here in spite the recent announcement of his vice-presidential running mate, according to the poll."This is not a big bounce electorate," said pollster John Zogby. "Let me repeat again: we are a nation that is split down the middle, polarized and hardened. What happened in the past 48 hours is that undecideds are back down to the 5%-7% range. Kerry's announcement of Edwards as his running mate brought some of those who defected into the undecided camp in June back into the fold. At the same time, it seems to have also re-energized Bush supporters. Where we are today is probably where we are going to be through much of the summer, if not through most of this campaign."Overall approval of President Bush's job performance moved up two points this month to 49%, the Zogby poll found, with more than half of respondents expressing disapproval of the Bush administration's performance on the economy (59%); foreign policy (54%); health care (68%); education (63%); and the environment (60%).The majority of respondents continue to say that the country is headed on the wrong track (48%), while 47% feel the United States is on the right track. This response has virtually remained unchanged over the last three months. When asked if President Bush "deserves to be re-elected", 43% of likely voters responded positively, while the majority, 53%, continues say that it is "time for someone new." "Bush has lost his edge on the war on terrorism and his job performance numbers on foreign policy, health care, the economy, the environment, and the war in Iraq are dismal," said Zogby. "While his overall job performance is up to 49% -- bolstered perhaps by his personal favorable rating of 56% -- his re-elect is only 43%. And his favorable rating of 56% favorable/43% unfavorable is pretty much the same as Kerry's 54% to 42%. No advantage here for either candidate."In the states won by former Vice President Al Gore in the 2000 presidential election, Kerry-Edwards receives 50% of support, as compared to Bush Cheney with 42%. In the states won by Bush-Cheney, the Republicans are favored by 50%, while Kerry-Edwards receives 45% support, according to the poll. That would suggest that the Electoral College vote could decide the presidential contest, and not match the results of the popular vote.Kerry-Edwards is preferred over Bush-Cheney in the eastern (52% - 38%), and the central Great Lakes (47%- 45%) regions, while Bush-Cheney leads in the South (50%- 47%) and the West (50%-44%). In terms of voter ideology, Kerry-Edwards is favored over Bush-Cheney among progressives (77%-21%), liberals (83%-12%), and moderates (59% 34%), while Bush-Cheney is favored over Kerry-Edwards among conservatives (76%- 19%), the poll found."There are some notable gaps in this poll," Zogby observed. "Bush leads among married voters 53% to 42%, while Kerry's lead among singles is 62% to 26%. Kerry's lead among voters ages 18 to 24 is 59% to 40%, and among ages 25 to 34 it is also 59% to 40% -- but the president's support increases with age: 46% to 45% among ages 35 to 49, 50% 50 45% among ages 55 to 69, and among those over 70 it is 50% to 44%. But people age 55 to 69 are mainly the most conservative of age cohorts, so the president's lead here is not enough for him," he said.Over half (56%) of the poll's respondents say they disapprove of Bush's job performance regarding the war in Iraq -- a 15-point drop within the last six months. More than two in five (44%) rate his performance as positive.Respondents remain evenly divided on the value of the war. When asked if the war in Iraq was "worth it," half (50%) expressed their support -- down six percentage points from last month. While nearly one in two (49%) oppose the war, the poll found.Nearly one in three (27%) identified jobs and the economy the top issue facing the country, followed by the war on terrorism (19%); health care (13%); the war in Iraq (12%); and education (8%). "The economy remains the top issue, but the war in Iraq has slipped to fourth place behind the war on terrorism and health care," Zogby said. "These issues do not favor the president."Zogby International conducted telephone interviews of a random sampling of 1008 likely voters chosen at random nationwide. All calls were made from Zogby International headquarters in Utica, N.Y., from Tuesday, July 6 through Wednesday, July 7. The margin of error is +/3.1 percentage points. Slight weights were added to region, party, age, race, religion, gender and presidential voter to more accurately reflect the voting population. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups. Visit Zogby International at www.zogby.com"