Welcome to the Business Journal Archives
Search for articles below, or continue to the all new BusinessJournalDaily.com now.
Search
Presidential Race Tightens Again, Kerry's Image Improves"
WASHINGTON -- The latest poll from the Pew Research Center, released today at 4 p.m., coincides with the daily Zogby/Reuters Tracking Poll: The presidential race is tied.The survey of 1,307 registered voters, conducted Oct. 15 to Oct. 19, finds President George W. Bush and Sen. John Kerry tied at 45%-45% among registered voters, and 47%-47% among likely voters. These findings represent a gain in support for the Democratic challenger since early October, when he trailed the president among both likely and registered voters. Here is the full text of the Pew Research Center's findings:Kerry's gains in the horse race are tied more to an improving personal image than to growing strength on the issues. In particular, the Democratic challenger has virtually erased Bush's advantage for honesty and having good judgment in a crisis. Kerry is again seen as the more empathetic candidate, an advantage he held earlier in the campaign but lost after the Republican convention. Bush continues to lead by significant but narrowing margins as the stronger leader and as the candidate more willing to take an unpopular stand on the issues. There has been little movement in how voters assess the candidates on the issues. But a separate Pew Research Center poll of 803 adults shows that Bush's own approval measures have weakened appreciably. Bush's overall job approval stands at 44%, while solid majorities disapprove of his handling of the situation in Iraq (56% disapprove) and the economy (55%). Even on terrorism, the president's strongest issue, his approval rating stands at 49% -- the lowest level since the Sept. 11 attacks. Despite this erosion, however, most voters continue to believe that Bush, not Kerry, would do a better job of defending the country from future terrorist attacks (by 53%-35%). Bush also holds a 47%-41% advantage over Kerry as the candidate best able to handle Iraq. As in the past, more voters express confidence in Kerry than Bush to deal with the economy and improve the nation's health care system. The survey finds that voter opinion is solidifying even as the race tightens. A decreasing number of supporters of each candidate -- 8% of Kerry voters and 9% of Bush voters -- say they could still change their vote before Nov. 2. Moreover, 80% of all voters say the candidates take different positions from one another on the issues, far higher than the percentage who expressed that view in June, and at any point in the 2000 campaign. Voters are broadly aware of most of the character and policy criticisms being traded by the candidates, such as the charge that Kerry "changes his mind too much" and that Bush "misled the public about the war in Iraq." Among swing voters, in particular, the criticism that Kerry changes his mind too much is more damaging than the charges that he supports a return to big government or is "too liberal for the country." By contrast, two major charges against Bush -- that he misled the public on Iraq and that he "cares more about the rich" --are about equally troubling to swing voters. Reflecting the closeness of the presidential race, identical numbers of voters now express favorable opinions of both Bush and Kerry (56% each). As in previous surveys, swing voters have positive impressions of both men -- 60% say that about Bush, 57% have a favorable opinion of Kerry. Since the beginning of October, Kerry has achieved notable gains among two key groups of voters -- women and white Catholics. The gender gap is now about the same as it was in the 2000 exit poll, with women supporting Kerry by 10 points (51%-41%), while men back Bush by about the same margin (50%-39%). Women age 50 and older, who have been about evenly divided in recent Pew polls, now back Kerry by a substantial margin (53%-36%). And white Catholic voters, who have consistently favored Bush over the past month, now lean toward Kerry by 50%-43%.Despite Kerry's improved showing in the horse race, he has yet to fully dispel concerns of voters who believe it would be risky to change leaders with the country facing war and the continuing threat of terrorism. The new survey finds that 41% of all voters -- including a third of swing voters -- believe it is a "major risk" to replace Bush with Kerry at this time. And when voters are asked about the risk of making a change while the U.S. is "threatened by terrorism," slightly more voters (44%) say replacing Bush with Kerry represents a major risk. The poll also finds that voters, by two-to-one (54%-27%), believe that Bush will win the election. More than eight-in-ten Bush voters (85%) believe the president will win, while Kerry supporters are much less confident (54% expect Kerry to win). Bush Approval Ratings Sag Overall views of Bush's performance in office continue to sag. Evaluations of the president's handling of Iraq, terrorism and foreign policy moved somewhat higher in the weeks following the Republican convention, but they have returned to levels as low, or lower, as in the late spring and summer. Currently, 44% of Americans approve of the president's job overall, while 48% disapprove. By large margins, majorities disapprove of how the president is handling Iraq (56% disapprove, 37% approve) and the economy (55%, 38%). Just under half of Americans (49%) approve of how the president is handling terrorist threats, down from 62% in early September. Voters' Priorities For the most part, the issue priorities of voters have changed little since August. About three-quarters (78%) cite the economy as very important to their vote, and roughly the same number mention terrorism (77%), education (75%), Iraq (74%) and health care (73%). The issue of jobs was not included in the August survey, but that also ranks as a leading priority on the current survey (76% very important). While the priorities of committed Bush voters differ markedly from those of certain Kerry voters, swing voters' priorities are much closer to those of Kerry supporters than Bush voters. Nearly nine-in-ten Bush voters (88%) cite terrorism as very important to their vote, while other issues lag well behind in importance. Iraq and moral issues rank second among Bush voters (at 74% and 73% respectively), followed by the economy and education (67% each). Both terrorism and moral values rank much lower among the priorities of Kerry supporters and swing voters, which are dominated by bread-and butter issues such as jobs, health care and the economy. Jobs and health care lead the priorities of committed Kerry voters (87% rank each as "very important"). The economy ranks just behind at 86%, followed by education (81%), the budget deficit and Iraq (77% each). Swing voters also rate the economy, education, jobs and health care as most important. Terrorism, the leading issue for committed Bush voters, is a lower priority for Kerry supporters and swing voters, although about seven-in-ten in each group cite terrorism as a very important factor in their vote. While most voters rate moral values as very important in their vote -- and this is especially the case for certain Bush voters -- they view specific social issues such as gay marriage and stem cell research as much less important. Of 16 issues tested, gay marriage is the lowest rated priority among Kerry supporters (26% very important) and swing voters (29%). While a somewhat higher percentage of committed Bush voters than others cite gay marriage as very important to their vote, significantly fewer do so now than in early August (51% then, 38% today). Religious Gap on Social Issues However, social issues do figure heavily in the voting decisions of white evangelical Protestants. About six-in-ten white evangelicals (61%) say abortion is very important to their vote, and roughly half (49%) say gay marriage will be a major factor in their vote. About half as many white mainline Protestants, white Catholics, and seculars rate the issue of gay marriage as equally important. Abortion is a slightly bigger factor in the voting decisions of white Catholics than mainline Protestants (40% vs. 34%), but ranks below most other issues in importance. There are fewer differences among religious groups over the importance of stem cell research. Roughly four-in-ten members of all major religious groups, including seculars, say it will be very important in their voting decision. Reasons for Supporting Bush, Kerry Supporters of Bush and Kerry offer very different reasons for why they want to see their candidate elected. For Bush voters, positive assessments of the president's character are mentioned nearly as often as his stance on the issues, while for Kerry voters issues are predominant. About four-in-ten Bush voters (38%) volunteer the president's position on issues as the reason they most want to see him reelected. But nearly as many (34%) mention Bush's personal qualities, such as his honesty and integrity, leadership qualities or his moral and Christian values. Roughly a quarter of Bush voters (24%) cite the president's record in office and support for what he has done so far. Slightly fewer (16%) focused on negative aspects of Kerry or the need for continuity of leadership during a war. Issues dominate the reasons Kerry voters give for why they want him to win on Nov. 2. Fully six-in-ten cite issues, including the war in Iraq and military issues, or the economy and jobs. A third of Kerry supporters mention negative factors about Bush as the main reason they want Kerry to prevail. Just 12% of Kerry voters mention the challenger's personal qualities, far fewer than the 34% of Bush supporters who cite the president's personal traits as the main reason they want him elected. Campaign Themes Resonate Majorities of voters say they are familiar with the leading criticisms lodged by each candidate against the other. Swing voters are generally less engaged in the presidential campaign, but nearly as many swing voters as committed voters say they have heard of criticisms made against Bush and Kerry. About three-quarters (76%) of swing voters have heard the criticism that Kerry changes his mind too much, and 64% have heard the charge that Kerry is too liberal for the country. The president and his supporters also have charged that Kerry would bring big government solutions to issues such as health care, but voters generally -- and swing voters in particular -- are less aware of this criticism. Of the criticisms lodged against Kerry, the "flip-flop" charge has the greatest impact. Nearly a third of swing voters (32%) -- and 37% of all voters -- say hearing this criticism makes them less likely to vote for Kerry. Even 17% of Democratic voters say that claim makes them less likely to support Kerry. Among all voters, the criticism that Bush misled the public about the war (44%), and that he cares more about the rich than average Americans (41%), are most persuasive. Both of these criticisms have an impact on swing voters, with 38% saying that each makes them less likely to vote for Bush. Both also appear to be influential among voters in battleground states; 44% of voters in these states say the charge that Bush misled on Iraq makes them less likely to support him, while 45% say the same about the criticism that Bush cares more about the rich than average Americans. Most Are Confident in Electoral System A majority of voters (62%) say they are "very" confident that their vote will be counted accurately in the upcoming election. Another 26% say they are "somewhat" confident, while small minorities say they are "not too" confident (7%) or "not at all" confident (4%) about their vote being counted. However, there are wide disparities in voter confidence across political, racial, and other demographic lines. Just 47% of African American and 52% of Hispanic voters say they are very confident their vote will be counted, compared with 65% of white voters. More broadly, while three quarters of Bush supporters are very confident their vote will be counted, only about half of Kerry supporters (49%) say the same. New voters, and younger people in general, express more skepticism than older people about the electoral process. Just half of voters under age 30 (49%) say they are very confident their vote will be counted accurately, and this is about the same among all registered voters who say this year will be the first time they will have ever voted (47%). Overall, women are less confident in the voting process than are men. Two-thirds of men are very confident that their vote will be counted (67%), but only 56% of women feel this way. Over seven-in-ten registered voters (72%) say they have heard about the use of new technology by many states to change the way votes are cast and counted in this year's election, though the public's reaction to these electoral reforms is lukewarm. Among those familiar with the changes, 24% say technology will make things better; 27% say they will not make much difference, and 12% say the changes will make things worse. Ground Game Gearing Up While get-out-the-vote efforts will move into high gear over the next two weeks, 26% of registered voters say they already have been contacted over the phone by candidates, campaigns or other groups urging them to vote in a particular way on Nov. 2. Overall, 7% of voters say they have been contacted only by Republican groups, while another 7% have been contacted by both Republican and Democratic groups. About as many voters report being contacted by Democratic groups (6% Democrat only, 7% both). The concentration of campaigns' telephone efforts in the battleground states, and among voters who have yet to make up their minds is apparent. Fully 36% of voters in battleground states say they have been contacted about the election, compared with 21% of voters in states where Kerry is favored, and 19% in states where Bush is expected to win. In the battleground states, 12% of registered voters in the battleground states say they have already been contacted by phone from both sides during this campaign, and both Democrats and Republicans appear to be reaching about the same number of voters. Telephone contacts have been far less common among younger voters than among those over age 50. Only about one-in-five voters under age 30 (18%) report having been called by a campaign, party or group, compared with 29% of those age 50-64 and 40% of those age 65 and older. Among voters age 65 and older, about twice as many (14%) report the"