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Possibility of Military Draft Concerns Young Adults
PHILADELPHIA -- About half of the country's 18 to 29-year-olds believe that President George W. Bush wants to reinstate the military draft, even though he and his challenger, Sen. John F. Kerry, have each insisted they oppose the idea, the University of Pennsylvania's National Annenberg Election Survey shows. Older respondents were more likely than younger respondents to know that neither Bush nor Kerry favors the draft. "Young voters are much more misinformed about the presidential candidates' positions on the draft than the population in general," said Kate Kenski, a senior analyst at the Annenberg Public Policy Center at the University of Pennsylvania."Only about a quarter of 18-to-29-year-olds knew that neither President Bush nor Senator Kerry favors the draft compared to 42 percent of citizens overall. Given that young people are the ones to be affected most by a draft, they should know that there is no difference between the candidates on this issue." Annenberg polling from Sept. 27 through Oct. 3 among 1,543 adults asked which candidate favors reinstating the draft. Thirty percent said Bush, 10 percent said Kerry, and 7 percent said both. Forty-two percent said "neither," and 11 percent said that they did not know. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus two percentage points. But among 18-to-29-year-olds, 51 percent said Bush, and 8 percent said Kerry; 7 percent said both would. Twenty six percent said neither favored the idea, and 8 percent said they did not know. The margin of sampling error for the younger respondents was plus or minus 7 percentage points. Campaigning in Florida on Sept. 22, John Kerry said that he did not support reinstating the draft: "If George Bush were to be re-elected, given the way he has gone about this war, and given his avoidance of responsibility in North Korea and Iran and other places, it is possible, I can't tell you. I will tell you this: I will not reinstate the draft." More recently, at an Oct. 3 campaign appearance in Austintown, Ohio, Kerry said he would only reinstate the draft if the security of the United States was at stake. But Bush insisted on Oct. 4 in Iowa that he was committed to retaining an all-volunteer military. "That is why we increased pay to make the all-volunteer army work. That's why we increased housing benefits. That's why we're making sure these troops are skilled," he said. "Secondly, in order to win the war on terror, we need specialized forces. This is specialty work. If you draft, you don't get the specialized force you need. We don't need a draft. We will not have a draft so long as I'm the President of the United States."On Oct. 5, the U.S. House of Representatives voted 402 to 2 to defeat a bill that would require "all young persons in the United States, including women, perform a period of military service or a period of civilian service in furtherance of the national defense and homeland security." The bill was introduced in January 2003 by Rep. Charles Rangel, D-N.Y., as a protest to U.S. involvement in Iraq. Rangel and all but two other Democrats voted against the bill. On Wednesday President Bush congratulated the House on its vote. While 53 percent of Republicans gave the correct answer, just 37 percent of Democrats also said "neither" presidential candidate favors reinstating the draft. Eighteen percent of Republicans said that Bush favors reinstating the draft compared to 38 percent of Democrats and 30 percent of Independents."Candidate favorability ratings are associated with correctly stating that neither candidate favors a draft," Kenski said. "Forty-nine percent of respondents who view Bush favorably know that neither candidate favors a draft, while just 37 percent of those who view him unfavorably answer the question correctly. In contrast, 39 percent of respondents who view Kerry favorably know that neither candidate favors a draft, while 52 percent of those who view him unfavorably correctly identify the candidates' position on this issue."Respondents interested in public affairs were more likely to know the presidential candidates' positions on the draft. While 60 percent of citizens who reported that they were interested in government and public affairs "most the time" correctly said that neither candidate favors the draft, just 32 percent of respondents who were interested "some of the time, only now and then, or hardly at all" gave that correct answer. Support for the Bush (and Kerry) position of keeping troops in Iraq until a stable government is established was associated with knowing the correct answer about the draft. Only 27 percent of those who wanted the troops brought home as soon as possible knew that neither Bush nor Kerry wants to reinstate the draft. Fifty-three percent of those who wanted troops to stay knew that correct answer.Seventy-one percent of respondents said that they did not think that the U.S. should put the military draft back into operation, while 22 percent said that the draft should be put back into operation and 6 percent said that they did not know. The 18-to-29-year-olds were about as likely to favor the draft as were all respondents. Visit the Web site at www.AnnenbergPublicPolicyCenter.org"