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New Pew Poll Gives Issues Advantage to Democrats
WASHINGTON -- On the eve of next week's Democratic National Convention, a new poll by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press finds Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, bolstered by a number of favorable trends in public opinion, although he remains locked in a statistical tie for voter support with President George W. Bush. Kerry's party is dominant on key domestic issues and at least competitive with the Republicans on every issue except terrorism, the Pew Poll finds. Most important, the Democrats have a strong advantage over the GOP as the party that cares more about the needs of ordinary people. Further, rank-and-file Democrats are increasingly unified and optimistic about their chances in November. At the same time, the poll showed President Bush's overall job rating still hovers below the 50% mark, and his ratings on individual issues -- with the exception of terrorism -- remain lackluster. In addition, despite the U.S. transfer of power in Iraq, public perceptions of the situation there have not improved. Just 42% approve of Bush's handling of Iraq, and 59% continue to believe he does not have a clear plan to bring the situation to a successful conclusion. Iraq also leads the list of the most important problems facing the nation. For all that, however, there are no signs that Kerry is breaking out in the presidential horse race, according to the new poll. Currently, Kerry and running mate Sen. John Edwards draw 46% among registered voters and Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney 44%, with 3% going to Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo, the Green Party candidate. The race continues to fluctuate within a fairly narrow range; last month Bush led Kerry by a slight margin (46%-42%). The latest survey by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, conducted July 8-18 among 2,009 adults (1,568 registered voters), showed that while the race remains tight, Kerry has made a notable improvement in his standing in the battleground states. Kerry currently holds a six-point edge, 47% to 41%, in these states; last month, Bush was ahead by 11 points (49%-38%). Yet in many ways, Kerry's horse race numbers do not match up with the Democrats' growing strength on issues and the party's improving overall image, the poll indicated. Since September 2002, prior to the midterm election, the Democrats have moved from a tie on dealing with the economy to a 12-point lead (46%-34%), and eliminated the GOP's 10 point edge on foreign policy. Democrats also are running about even with the Republicans on making wise decisions about Iraq (40% Democrat/ 38% Republican); in October 2002, the GOP held a 16-point advantage on handling Iraq. Currently, the only issue on which the public favors the Republicans by a substantial margin is in dealing with terrorism at home (45%-30%). The Democrats also are perceived in a favorable light on such qualities as competence and compassion, survey respondents said. About as many people say the phrase "able to manage the federal government well" describes the Democrats as the Republicans (40% vs. 37%). During the mid- and late 1990s, pluralities typically associated this characteristic with Republicans. By a wide margin (50%-30%), most people said the phrase "is concerned with the needs of people like me" also better describes Democrats. Republicans run about even with Democrats on honesty and ethics, and are overwhelmingly viewed as the party concerned with "the needs and interests of business and other powerful groups" (61%-22%). At the same time, the Democrats have retained -- or in some cases reasserted -- their advantage on domestic issues. The Democrats continue to lead by wide margins on health care and the environment. And education once again has become a strong suit for the Democrats; by 45%-29%, the public believes Democrats can do a better job of improving the educational system. This marks a change from early in Bush's administration, when the president's strong focus on education helped the Republicans to neutralize the Democrats' advantage on this issue. The new Pew survey showed that as the Democratic Party heads off to the convention its members are increasingly confident of victory in November. Overall, 42% of voters nationally said they expect Bush to win the election, while 38% said Kerry. Democrats, in particular, have become significantly more confident in a victory for their party. In May, only half of Democrats predicted a Kerry victory, a figure that rose to 57% in June and stands at 66% today. Independents also have a different view of the race than a few months ago, but are expressing more uncertainty about the outcome than are either Democrats or Republicans. Overall, 49% of Americans rated the selection of Edwards as vice presidential nominee as good or excellent, compared with 31% who call it only fair or poor. The reception for Edwards is more positive than the welcome given to Al Gore when he was picked by Bill Clinton in July 1992. This is especially the case among Democrats, who have a much more favorable view of Kerry's selection of Edwards than of Clinton's choice of Gore. For his part, Bush continued to receive subpar approval ratings on some of the same issues on which the Democratic Party has made gains, according to the poll. On the war in Iraq and the economy -- the two issues that the public identifies as the most important problems facing the country -- majorities continued to disapprove of Bush's job performance. Bush does considerably better on terrorism, but this issue ranks well below the war and the economy in public concerns. Currently, 54% approved of the president's handling of terrorist threats, which is largely unchanged over the past few months but down since last fall. Voter Engagement Rising Voter attention to the 2004 election continues to run high relative to other recent elections. Two-thirds of voters (67%) said they have given "quite a lot" of thought to the coming presidential election, up from 58% in June. There was a similar rise in public interest in the early summer of 1992, when fully 72% of voters have given a lot of thought to the race by August, up from 63% in June of that year. By comparison, in 1996 and 2000 voters had not given this much thought to the election until October, within weeks of election day. Roughly 3 in 10 Americans (29%) said they are following news about the 2004 presidential campaign "very closely."While this figure has not risen in recent months, it is substantially higher than in July 2000 (21%), 1996 (22%), or 1992 (20%). Satisfaction up to 38% Public satisfaction with the way things are going in the country has increased slightly to 38%, from an eight-year low in May when only 33% were satisfied with national conditions. Since late February, majorities have expressed dissatisfaction with country's course. Currently, 55% said they are dissatisfied with the way things are going. Perceptions of satisfaction are strongly influenced by partisanship. Fully 68% of Republicans are satisfied with the way things are going compared with 31% of independents and just 18% of Democrats. Similarly, Bush and Kerry voters are deeply divided over national conditions. Half of swing voters (52%) are dissatisfied with the way things are going, while 38% are satisfied. Fewer Cite Economic Problems The economy has faded somewhat as the public's top concern since the beginning of the year, while foreign issues -- specifically the war in Iraq -- have assumed greater prominence, the Pew poll indicated. Today, by a margin of 41% to 26%, more mention war, terrorism, or other foreign policy issues than cite the economy as the most important problem. In January, about the same number cited foreign issues as the economy (37% vs. 35%). The percentage specifically citing the war in Iraq as the country's most important problem rose from 16% in January to 25% now. That is still below the 34% who cited Iraq in February 2003, on the eve of the conflict. At the same time, the number citing terrorism as the most important problem dropped from 14% in January to 8%. More Kerry voters than Bush voters cite Iraq (31% vs. 23%) and the economy (28% vs. 20%) as important problems, according to the poll. Bush voters are more apt to mention terrorism than are Kerry voters (15% vs. 5%). Democrats Gain on Issues Over the past two years, the Democratic Party has improved its standing on the public's two leading concerns -- the war in Iraq and the economy. The biggest shift has come on the economy, the survey indicated. Fully 46% of Americans said the Democratic Party can do a better job of dealing with the economy, 34% said the GOP can do a better job on this issue. In the fall of 2002, the two parties were virtually tied on the issue. And as recently as January 2002, the Republicans enjoyed a significant lead (43% vs. 34%). In spite of the fall off in support for the GOP's handling of the economy, rank-and-file Republicans remain firmly committed to their own party on this issue. About 7 in 10 Republicans (71%) said their party can do the best job handling the economy, down only marginally from 74% in January 2002. Democrats' opinions on this issue have shifted significantly, however. In 2002, 61% of Democrats said their party could do the best job handling economic matters; today that number has risen to 82%. The views of independents have shifted even more dramatically. In early 2002, independents favored the GOP's approach to handling the economy over the Democrats' (45% vs. 30% respectively). Today, independents have more confidence in the Democratic Party on this issue by a margin of 44% to 27%. Partisan Parity on Iraq, Foreign Policy The public is now divided over which party can do a better job dealing with the situation in Iraq. According to the survey, 4 in 10 Americans said the Democratic Party can do better in making wise decisions about what to do in Iraq, while 38% chose the Republicans. In early October 2002, Republicans held a clear edge on this issue among registered voters (46% vs. 30% for the Democrats). As is the case with opinions on the economy, most of the shift in opinion since that time has come among Democrats. In early October 2002, just over half of Democrats (55%) said their party could do the best job handling the situation in Iraq. In that survey, conducted among registered voters, 1 in 4 Democrats actually had more confidence in the GOP's ability to handle this issue. Today, 77% of Democrats said their party can do the best job dealing with Iraq. Republicans' opinions have remained remarkably stable over this same period, while independents are now more likely to favor the Democratic Party on this issue. The Democratic Party also has drawn even with the GOP on the general issue of foreign policy. When asked which party can do a better job making wise decisions about foreign policy, the public divides fairly evenly -- 40% chose the Democrats and 38% chose the Republicans. Two years ago, the Republicans led, 40%-30%. Terrorism remains a strong issue for the Republicans, although the GOP is not quite as dominant as it was in early 2002.Currently, 45% of Americans said the GOP can do a better job dealing with terrorism, 30% chose the Democrats. In January 2002, nearly half of the public (48%) expressed more confidence in the Republicans when it came to dealing with terrorism, only 18% said the Democrats could do a better job. But the GOP's lead on terrorism remains about as large as it was in October 2002 (44%-28%). Morality -- No Edge to GOP Five years ago, 52% of the American public said the Democratic Party could do a better job improving the educational system, while only 29% chose the Republican Party. By January 2001, the two parties were in a virtual tie on this issue, and a year later, the GOP narrowly led the Democratic Party (37% vs. 34%). Today, Democrats have regained a 16% point advantage over the Republicans on the issue of improving education (45% vs. 29%, respectively). As is the case with many of these policy issues, Democrats have much more confidence in their own party's ability to make progress on education today than they did a couple of years ago. In January 2002, only 57% of Democrats said their party was best equipped to improve the educational system; today, 80% said they feel that way. Republicans continued to favor their own party's approach to education by a solid margin. The Democratic Party also has achieved gains on the issue of improving morality. Republicans had maintained a solid lead on this issue from the mid-1990s through the first two years of the Bush presidency. In January 2001, as Bush took office, the GOP enjoyed a 23-point advantage over the Democrats on the question of which party could do a better job of improving morality in this country. A year later, the Republicans held an 11% point advantage on this issue. Today, the public is evenly divided over which party can provide stronger moral leadership -- 37% chose the Republicans, 35% said the Democrats. The Democratic Party continues to hold a substantial lead over the Republican Party on the issue of health care reform. While the Democratic advantage on this issue has fluctuated over time, the party has consistently been viewed as better able to handle health care reform since the early 1990s. The Republicans came within striking distance of the Democrats last summer, when the GOP-led Medicare reform bill was working its way through Congress. However, the Democrats have regained their footing on this issue and now lead the Republicans by a 27-point margin. Health care is one issue where current Democratic policies may have at least some appeal for rank-and-fine Republicans. Last year, Republicans were fairly united behind their own party on this issue: 69% said the GOP could do the best job handling health care reform, only 8% favored the Democrats. Now, only about half of Republicans (54%) have more confidence in their party, 20% say the Democrats could do a better job. The Republican Party had made impressive gains among older Americans in 2002 on the health care issue, but many of them have since returned to the Democratic fold. Today, more than half of those age 50 and older said the Democrats can do a better job reforming health care, up from 37% in 2003.By contrast, only 20% said the Republican Party can do a better job on this issue, down from 32% in 2003. The Democratic Party continues to be viewed as better able to protect the environment: 51% of the public trusted the Democ"