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Most Americans Still Don't Know Where Candidates Stand
PHILADELPHIA -- Most voters stand to learn much from the presidential debates -- not the least of which is where the candidates stand on important of public policy issues, according to newly released data collected in a survey by the University of Pennsylvania's Annenberg Public Policy Center.The first debate begins at 9 p.m. tonight in Miami and will be telecast on all broadcast networks as well as the cable news channels.The Annenberg survey found a majority of adults still do not know which presidential candidate favors allowing workers to invest some of their Social Security contributions in the stock market, which candidate favors eliminating tax breaks for overseas profits of American corporations, or which candidate favors completely eliminating the estate tax. "Many American voters have not learned the candidates' issue positions because the candidates have not stressed them and journalists have focused on the horse race. In the absence of good information, voters guess and often guess incorrectly," said Kate Kenski, a senior research analyst at the Annenberg Public Policy Center. "The presidential debates may fix that."Polling conducted from Sept. 21 through Sept. 26 among 1,189 adults showed 64% of respondents were able to correctly identify George W. Bush, rather than John Kerry, as favoring laws making it more difficult for a woman to get an abortion. Sixty percent recognized that Bush, not Kerry, favors making the recent tax cuts permanent. But only 33% knew that Bush (and not Kerry) favors eliminating the estate tax; 23% of respondents incorrectly said that it was Kerry who favors eliminating the estate tax. When asked to name which presidential candidates favor a given policy position, respondents named the correct candidate a little more than half of the time.Because many respondents did not know the candidates' issue positions, they often did not know when they actually agreed with the presidential candidates on issue positions, the Annenberg survey found. Out of eight policy positions, respondents actually agreed with Bush more than they thought they did on three issues (allowing workers to invest some of their Social Security contributions in the stock market, eliminating the estate tax, and making the recent tax cuts permanent). He actually agreed with Kerry more than they realized on five issues (eliminating tax breaks for overseas profits of American corporations, changing the recently passed Medicare prescription drug law to allow re importing drugs from Canada, making it easier for labor unions to organize, federal funding of stem cell research on human embryos, and abortion rights). Perceived agreement was calculated by matching where the respondents stood on an issue and where they said a candidate stood on an issue regardless of the candidate's actual stance. If a respondent favored a given position and said that a candidate also favored it, he or she was said to agree. If a respondent opposed a position and did not name a candidate as supporting it, then he or she perceived himself or herself to be in agreement with the candidate. Actual agreement was calculated by matching where the respondents stood on an issue and where a candidate actually stood on that same issue. While 66% of survey participants said that they favored eliminating the estate tax -- the tax on property left by people who die (the Bush position), 40% of respondents perceived that they agreed with Bush on this issue. That is a 26% difference between people actually agreeing with Bush and realizing that they agree with Bush. When asked if they favored or opposed changing the recently passed Medicare prescription drug law to allow re-importing drugs from Canada, 74% of respondents favored this position (one held by Kerry), the survey found. But 52% of survey participants thought that they agreed with Kerry on this issue -- a difference of 22% between actual and perceived agreement with Kerry. "The presidential debates provide a unique opportunity for the electorate to compare the candidates side-by-side," Kenski said. "Past research shows that debates help voters figure out where the candidates stand on the issues." Visit the Annenberg Public Policy Center at www.AnnenbergPublicPolicyCenter.orgVisit the Annenberg Center's Fact Check Project at www.factcheck.org "