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More 'Persuadable Voters' Label Kerry as Caring, Experienced"
PHILADELPIA -- As Democrats prepare to nominate John Kerry for president tonight, the persuadable voters who are still up for grabs see him as more caring, more knowledgeable, and less reckless, stubborn, or arrogant than George W. Bush, the University of Pennsylvania's National Annenberg Election Survey shows. In one of those measures -- a key one for Democrats -- Kerry's standing is stronger relative to Bush than it was in early June. Then, 30% of persuadables said the term "cares about people like me" fitted Bush better and 37% said Kerry. Now 41% say Kerry and just 27% say Bush. The persuadable voters -- those who are either undecided or have a preference between Kerry, Bush or Ralph Nader but say there is a good chance they could change their minds -- do give Bush an edge as a strong leader, as optimistic and as steady.On the questions of which candidate is more inspiring, trustworthy, or easy to like personally, there was no statistically significant difference between them. Nor was there a difference on who has the right kind of experience to be president or shares the voters' values. But Bush's clear advantages over Kerry in early June on personal likeability and on experience has become smaller, the Annenberg survey shows. The current findings are based on interviews with 762 persuadable, registered voters from July 5, the day John Edwards was chosen to run for vice president, through July 25. In all, 5,051 adults were interviewed, among whom 4,211 said they were registered. The most important difference between the persuadable voters (about 18% of all registered voters, compared to 20% in June) and those who had firmly made up their minds came on the question of paying attention to the presidential campaign. Seventeen percent of the persuadable respondents, and 35% of everyone else, said they were following it very closely. Persuadable voters also were also younger, more moderate and less conservative, and had slightly lower household incomes than those who had made up their minds.The persuadable voters were about as likely to say they approved of how Bush was handling his job as president as was the public generally and less likely to have an unfavorable general opinion of him. But on specifics from the economy to the war on terrorism to Iraq, they were more critical. For example, 40% of the persuadables said they approved of how Bush was handling the war on terrorism, while 52% of the decided respondents did. Thirty-four percent of the persuadables said Iraq had been worth going to war over, compared to 45% of the decided. Twenty-two percent of the persuadables said the economy was good or excellent, compared to 32% of those who had made a firm choice. As the two campaigns seek simultaneously to win over persuadable voters and energize their core supporters to ensure high turnout, neither candidate faces significant problems within his own party, although about a fifth of Republicans considered Bush more out of touch, reckless and arrogant than Kerry. Forty-seven percent of Republicans said Bush was more stubborn than Kerry, but they may not have considered that a negative. The worst ratings Kerry got from Democrats came when 19% said the term "strong leader" applied better to Bush than to Kerry, 22% said he was more "out of touch" and 23% said the description "says one thing, does another" fitted Kerry better than Bush. But that last label -- "says one thing, does another" -- a staple of Bush campaigning against Kerry, no longer provided a clear advantage for the president. Among all registered voters, 35% said the term fitted Bush better, while 40% said it described Kerry better.Among the persuadable voters, the percentages were reversed though the differences were within the margin of sampling error, plus or minus four percentage points. Thirty-four percent of the persuadables said "says one thing, does another," applied better to Bush and 29% of them it said it fitted Kerry better. In June, 30% of the persuadables said the term fitted Bush better, while 32% said Kerry. The "shares my values" rating, which also reflects a major strain in Bush's campaigning against Kerry, showed 35% of persuadables giving Kerry higher marks, and 32% rating Bush higher. In early June, 36% rated Bush higher and 36% gave Kerry the advantage.But if "values" is not cutting among the persuadables, it matters to the core of each candidate's support. Among respondents in union households, Kerry held a 50% to 35% edge. Among blacks, his advantage was 71% to 7%. But among white Protestants who described themselves as "born again" or evangelical, Bush held a 62% to 22% advantage. That National Annenberg Election Survey, the largest academic election poll, is a project of the Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania. It has been tracking the presidential campaign since Oct. 7; interviewing will continue until after Election Day. Another major election project of the Annenberg Public Policy Center is FastCheck.org, a project that tries to hold politicians accountable by exposing false or misleading campaign statements. Visit FactCheck.org at www.FactCheck.orgVisit the Annenberg Public Policiy Center at www.AnnenbergPublicPolicyCenter.org "