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Kerry Keeps Tentative Lead in Electoral College, Zogby Reports"
UTICA, N.Y. -- As John Kerry puts the finishing touches on tonight's acceptance speech, the latest edition of the Zogby Interactive poll shows the Democrat retaining his Electoral College lead over President George W. Bush. "In a two-week stretch in which there was very little going on around the world or domestically, the race for the White House has followed suit, settling down a bit," said pollster John Zogby. Still, the race in many key states is too close to call, he added.The collection of state polls, conducted July 19 to July 23, shows Kerry leading in the Electoral College, 275 to 220, with three of the 16 battleground states -- Florida, Missouri, and Nevada -- excluded from the count.Florida is an absolute dead heat, according to the latest Zogby poll, while Missouri and Nevada are razor-thin advantages leaning toward Kerry. All three states were won by Mr. Bush four years ago. Even without considering the votes from those states, Kerry still has enough support in the Zogby model to win the presidency, the pollster said."But it cannot be emphasized enough that the polling shows this race is too close to call right now," Zogby added."Kerry leads in Tennessee by less than 2%, and Bush's lead in Ohio is very tenuous -- anything could happen," he said. "A major event in the campaign could change everything, but so far, neither candidate has been able to build much momentum, which raises the stakes for this first convention as voters scour the landscape for a watershed moment."In predicting Kerry would win the Electoral College vote, the pollster noted his calculation is based on polls conducted simultaneously but separately in 16 key battleground states across the nation. Each state poll carries its own margin of error. Three states are simply too close for their votes to be awarded -- Florida, Missouri, and Nevada -- so the total in this edition of the poll does not add up to the 538 votes in the Electoral College.Visit the Zogby Poll at www.zogby.com"