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Kerry Gains, Bush Slumps in Ohio "
UTICA, N.Y. -- The latest Zogby Interactive poll, conducted for The Wall Street Journal Online, puts John Kerry ahead of George W. Bush in the state of Ohio -- the first time the Democratic presidential candidate has polled ahead of the incumbent president in the Buckeye State.According to the poll of likely voters in Ohio -- a battleground state that Bush must win to be re-elected -- 48.6% of respondents would vote for prospective Democratic nominee, while 47.9% would support Bush. Independent candidate Ralph Nader garners the support of 0.8% of the poll's respondents.Support for Bush dropped by 2.6% since June, the poll found, while backing for Kerry increased by 3.5%. Bush carried Ohio's 21 electoral votes in 2000, garnering 50% of the vote. The state has supported the eventual president in every election since 1964. The new Ohio polling results coincide with another Zogby poll that found if the presidential election had been held the second week of July, Kerry would have won the Electoral College vote.Zogby's interactive poll of 16 battleground states, conducted from July 6 through July 10, found Kerry's selection of John Edwards as his running mate catapulted him ahead of Bush in 14 states, where the majority opposes Bush's re-election."Before anything else is considered, these states are all very close -- too close," said pollster John Zogby. "Kerry obviously had a good week. His choice of Edwards generated excitement among his base. And the suspended, multi-day roll-out made this week all about Kerry-Edwards, all the time. The U.S. Senate committee report on CIA intelligence failures probably helped, too," he said."But there is so little elasticity in this electorate. Every one of these states is technically within the margin-of-error. But clearly there has been some movement since our last [poll] three weeks ago."In Tennessee, the candidates are exactly tied, down to the tenth of a percent. Tennessee had been in the Bush category three weeks ago, when the last interactive polling was conducted, Zogby said. The state was excluded from his latest count of electoral votes.The calculations that go into the Electoral College tally contain poll results from many states that are too close to call when the margins for error are considered, he said. But to come up with numbers and identify a leader, that candidate with a lead in a particular state, no matter how small (except for Tennessee), was awarded that state's votes. Accordingly, changes in the Electoral College numbers from the last poll three weeks ago may be more dramatic than warranted, Zogby said."The most dramatic result here is in Tennessee, where Bush led by 18 last time," he observed. "This is one further sign that Edwards might play well in the South. In our national telephone surveys, the gap in the South closed from Bush 53% to Kerry 35% in early June. But now it is Bush 50% to Kerry 40%. If these numbers hold in the South, the president's game plan will be thrown off as he will have to spend more time and resources in the previously thought safe region."Zogby said his poll also found that "Edwards' magic doesn't seem to be working in West Virginia." And, he added, the third-party candidacy of Ralph Nader "can be a factor in changing Kerry's lead in five states -- Arkansas, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio, and Tennessee. Poll respondents were invited to participate from panels of likely voters who have agreed to take part in online surveys. Slight weights were applied to region, party, age, race, religion, and gender to more accurately reflect the voting population in the United States.Visit Zogby International at www.zogby.com"