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This Just In! Newsweek Poll Calls Race Dead Heat
NEW YORK -- In a two-way matchup, the presidential race remains in a dead heat in the latest Newsweek Poll, the magazine announced Saturday. Among registered voters, Bush/Cheney gets 48% and Kerry/Edwards 47% of the vote, a two-point gain for the Bush/Cheney ticket from the Newsweek Poll two weeks ago. Among likely voters, the Bush/Cheney lead opens up, 50% vs. 45% for Kerry/Edwards and among swing voters, Kerry/Edwards leads Bush/Cheney, 39% vs. 33%, with 28% undecided, the poll shows.In a three-way trial heat among registered voters, the race is just as close: Bush/Cheney beats Kerry/Edwards 48% vs. 46% with 1% for Nader/Camejo, the poll shows. That represents a four-point margin swing from the Sept. 30-Oct. 2 Newsweek Poll: Kerry/Edwards led Bush/Cheney, 47% vs. 45%. Among likely voters, the gap is bigger: 50% for Bush/Cheney vs. 44% for Kerry/Edwards, with 1 percent for Nader/Camejo. And among swing voters, Kerry/Edwards gets 34% of the vote; Bush/Cheney get 33% with 5% for Nader/Camejo and 28% undecided, the poll shows. For this Newsweek Poll, swing voters are defined as those who plan to vote but say they have not yet made up their mind about who to support. Likely voters are determined based on response to six questions about voting intentions, voting history, interest in politics, and knowledge of the voting process.Here is the text of Newsweek's announcement on new poll results:With the death of actor Christopher Reeve, the topic of stem cell research has surfaced in the campaign. In the Newsweek Poll, 54% of registered voters say Kerry would handle stem cell research better than Bush, who got 32% of the vote on that issue. Fifty percent of registered voters (and 48% of swing voters) say they favor using federal tax dollars to fund medical research using stem cells obtained from human embryos. And of those who favor it, 75% say it's because they support scientific progress generally; 21% say it's because they have/know someone with disease. Thirty-six percent of registered voters oppose the research (and 39% of swing voters). Of those who oppose the research, 58% say it's because it conflicts with religious/moral values; 37% say it's not a good use of public money. Among registered voters, 44% say the issue of stem cell research is at least somewhat important (14% say very important) in determining their vote for president. Twenty-eight percent say it's not too important and 25% say it's not at all important in determining their vote, the poll shows.Forty-four percent of those who watched the third and final debate Oct. 13 say Kerry won; 36% say Bush won. Forty-nine percent say Kerry had a better command of the issues and facts (43% say so for Bush); 53% say Kerry seemed more confident and self-assured (39% for Bush) and 49% say Kerry seemed to better understand the problems and concerns of people like them (43% for Bush). Forty-eight percent say Bush seemed more personally likeable (43% for Kerry) and 44% say Bush did more to distort or exaggerate his opponent's record on positions on issues (41% say so for Kerry), the poll shows.Fifty-five percent of all adults polled say they are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time and Bush's job-approval rating increased one point from the Sept. 30-Oct. 2 Newsweek Poll to 47%. And registered voters are nearly even on whether or not they'd like to see Bush re elected to another term: 47% say yes; 48% say no.As for who would handle issues better overall, among registered voters Kerry leads Bush 46% to 40% on social security. Kerry leads Bush 48% to 45% on handling the economy, a 6-point gain for Bush from the poll taken two weeks ago. Kerry also leads Bush in handling health care, including Medicare, 50% to 42%, an 8-point gain for Bush since the last Newsweek Poll. Kerry leads on the environment (51% vs. 34%) and American jobs and foreign competition (49% vs. 40%). Bush leads Kerry 51% to 4% on handling the situation in Iraq; on terrorism and homeland security (54 % vs. 38%) and taxes (49% vs. 42%), the poll shows.Overall, 63% of registered voters say Bush has strong leadership qualities (55% say so for Kerry) and 68% say Bush says what he believes, not just what people want to hear, compared to 47% for Kerry. Sixty-six percent say Bush is personally likeable (59% say so for Kerry) and 56% t say Bush is honest and ethical (52% say so for Kerry), the poll shows. Fifty-three percent say they would trust Bush to make the right decisions during an international crisis vs. 47% who say so for Kerry. But 78 percent say Kerry is intelligent and well-informed, vs. 61% who say so for Bush.Twenty-six percent of registered voters say they and their family will be better off in terms of retirement security if Bush is re-elected; 31% say so if Kerry were elected but 38 percent say there will be no difference in their plans either way.For this Newsweek Poll, Princeton Survey Research Associates interviewed 1,004 registered voters on Oct. 14 and Oct. 15. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points with different margins of error for subgroups.Visit Newsweek at www.newsweek.com"