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'Job Gap' Hangs on in Pennsylvania
HARRISBURG, Pa. -- Despite continued job growth in April, Pennsylvania still has a significant job gap. The state has 108,600 fewer jobs than it did at the beginning of the last recession in March 2001, according an analysis of new Department of Labor and Industry data by the Keystone Research Center.Compared to what would have been necessary to keep pace with the growth of Pennsylvania's working-age population, the job gap since January 2001 is over 200,000.The number of non-farm jobs in Pennsylvania climbed in April for the second month in a row, following nine consecutive months of job losses, according to numbers released by the Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry today."It is a relief to working families that the Pennsylvania economy is finally creating new jobs," said Keystone Research Center economist Stephen Herzenberg, "but Pennsylvania's job gap remains too high."Because Pennsylvania is a critical swing state in this year's Presidential election, the new Pennsylvania job numbers take on added significance. "Particularly troubling, is manufacturing's continued job plunge, with April being the 45th month in a row of job losses," Herzenberg said. "Pennsylvania has lost one out of every five manufacturing jobs since January 2001. This is the largestpercent drop in Pennsylvania manufacturing jobs in any Presidential term since the Great Depression. In only one other Presidential term since the 1930's has Pennsylvania lost as many as one out of 10 jobs."The loss of manufacturing is one factor contributing to declining job quality in Pennsylvania, as measured by wage and benefit trends, Herzenberg noted. A Keystone Center release earlier this month pointed to a new Economic Policy Institute report documenting a health benefit gap between Pennsylvania's shrinking industries and its growing industries. In shrinking Pennsylvania industries, including manufacturing, 67.5% of jobs provide health care benefits to their workers. This compares with only 52.4% of jobs in growing industries.From June 2003 to April 2004, 95,200 jobs were supposed to have been created in Pennsylvania under President Bush's 'Jobs and Growth' tax cut, Herzenberg said. In fact, since the tax cut was projected to start creating jobs, Pennsylvania has lost 500 jobs. To hit the President's target, Pennsylvania must gain 21,500 jobs per month for the rest of the year, not the 10,200 seen in April.Herzenberg also pointed out the following jobs data:The state of Pennsylvania had 108,600 fewer jobs in April 2004 than in March 2001 when the recession officially began -- a decline of 1.9%. Pennsylvania needs 13,600 jobs per month to just get back to the number of jobs it had when the recession began by the end of 2004.Pennsylvania had 38,300 fewer jobs in April 2004 than in November 2001 when the recession officially ended -- a decline of 0.7%. This far (29 months) after the end of the 1990 recession, Pennsylvania had seen an increase of 0.5% in total payroll employment.The Keystone State had 107,900 fewer jobs in April 2004 than in January 2001 -- a decline of 1.9%. Pennsylvania needs 13,500 jobs per month to just get back to the number of jobs it had at the beginning of 2001 by the end of this year.Pennsylvania had an unemployment rate of 5.3% in April 2004, up from 4.3% in March 2001, when the recession officially began.The unemployment rate was 5.3% in April 2004, up from 5.2% in November 2001, when the recession officially ended.Jobs since the recession began have declined by 1.9%, while the working- age population growth has grown 1.6% - a difference of 3.5 percentage points. This estimate is based on a population growth estimate generated by Economy.com, a research firm based in Westchester, Pa. The state Department of Labor and Industry estimates population growth at a higher level, based on the Current Population Survey, leading to a larger job gap. If job growth since the recession began had just kept up with working-age population growth, Pennsylvania would have approximately 200,300 more jobs than it actually now has. Pennsylvania needs 27,500 jobs per month to get back the jobs lost in the recession and provide work for a growing population by the end of the year.Jobs since the recession ended have declined by 0.7%, while the working- age population growth has grown 1.3% -- a difference of 1.9 percentage points. If job growth since the recession ended had just kept up with working-age population growth, Pennsylvania would have approximately 109,700 more jobs than it actually now has.Pennsylvania had 150,700 fewer manufacturing jobs in April 2004 than in March 2001 when the recession officially began -- a decline of 17.8%.Visit the Keystone Research Center: www.keystoneresearch.org"