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Did Punxsutawney Phil get it right?
UNIVERSITY PARK, Pa. -- The eyes of those looking for a swift end to the chilly temperatures of winter were focused this morning on a spot fewer than 100 miles from Penn State's campus here, but university meteorologists and climatologists are keeping their eyes on the atmosphere to determine where the winter weather will take us next through the coming days and weeks.When Punxsutawney Phil, the famed prognosticating groundhog, emerged from his post at Gobbler's Knob in Punxsutawney, Pa., he saw his shadow -- and legend has it that signals six more weeks of winter. But Paul Knight, a Penn State meteorologist and Pennsylvania state climatologist, said that predicting scientifically what the final month and a half of the season will bring would be a difficult task. "The challenge is that the skill in predicting weather more than 10 days in advance is really quite tentative," he explained. "The increased skill comes in looking at temperature."As it turns out, though, the rodent may be right. Knight said it appears February and March could bring below-average temperatures. "The indications are right now that the likelihood is it will be slightly colder than normal," he noted. "Of course, there's the likelihood there could be a few pronounced warm spells in there, but I think at the end of March when you tallied it up you would see it was a slightly colder period than normal."How much snow might be around the corner is trickier, because predicting precipitation weeks in advance is difficult, Knight noted. "With precipitation, anything you say you'd have to take with a grain of salt," he said. "Where we have greater success is in looking at persistence. We see that it's been wetter than normal and that that is likely to continue."Meteorologists use a variety of methods in making long-range forecasts. Factors that might affect the jet stream, which guides the weather and is stronger in the winter months, are considered, Knight said. That includes unusually warm or cool patches of weather in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, as well as the amount of snow coverage over several continents, which might aid in keeping cold air over a particular region. The prolonged drought in the Pacific Northwest may also give clues as to where the jet stream will be. Computer simulations also offer mean projections, and examining what has happened historically after weeks of warm or cold during a particular time can offer insight into what is ahead."For one day, though, I guess we all defer to Phil," Knight said. "Groundhog Day is a lot of fun and a great break from the midwinter drag. People aren't looking to this in a serious, scientific way, but it gets them talking about weather. It's a wonderful event and one of those things that makes Pennsylvania such a great state."Visit Penn State University: www.psu.edu"