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"Bush vs. Kerry Fiscal Plans: Different Paths, Same Outcome"
"WALTHAM, Mass. -- Analysis of the fiscal plans offered by each presidential candidate, President George W. Bush and Senator John F. Kerry, finds little difference in the outcome, according to Global Insight Inc. "Much like the pre-election polls, the economic impacts of the Bush and Kerry budget plans are so close as to be almost indistinguishable," said Nariman Behravesh, chief global economist at Global Insight. "The differences lie in how they achieve growth. The Bush plan does it with tax cuts; the Kerry plan with increases in government spending."Both candidates' plans fail to even halve the deficit within the next five years. The 2009 budget deficits under the Bush and Kerry plans are projected to be $375 billion and $447 billion, respectively. A large deficit will weigh down on the economy and constrain growth, ultimately limiting it to 2.5% to 3% by the end of this decade, the analysis found.Economic and job growth will be about the same regardless of who wins the election -- again, the difference is in the approach, the analysis found. Economic growth and the number of jobs created by the Bush and Kerry plans are virtually the same, with the economy growing at an annual average rate of 2.9% and the number of U.S. jobs reaching an average of 146 million jobs by 2014. The Bush plan, however, achieves growth by boosting capital spending, while the Kerry plan relies on more government spending to propel the economy.Little difference was found in the outcome of the two plans in the area of disposable income and consumer spending, the Bush plan boosts income through tax cuts while the Kerry plan accomplishes the same goal through increased government spending, including medical assistance to lower income families.Global Insight, a privately held economic analysis company, will closely cover economic developments that are relevant to the election in the weeks and days prior to the election. Continuously updated information on the analysis of the candidates' Fiscal Plans, the 2004 Presidential Election Model, post-debate analysis and expert viewpoints are available at the company's Web site: www.globalinsight.com/election2004."