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"Bush Makes Gains on Personal Traits, Some Issues"
"PHILADELPHIA -- In a period marked by his eulogy for Ronald Reagan, United Nations approval of sovereignty transfer in Iraq while terrorist strikes continued amid reports of good economic news, George W. Bush improved his image with the American people significantly on attributes such as experience, steadiness, caring, knowledge, and trustworthiness, the University of Pennsylvania's National Annenberg Election Survey shows. But those changes, measured in interviews of 1,431 adults between June 8 and 21, were not repeated among persuadable potential voters in all states, those who are either undecided or say there is a "good chance" they could change their current preference for Bush, Democrat John Kerry or Reform Party candidate Ralph Nader. In that group, the president's ratings either stayed about the same, or in one case, his rating as a "strong leader," actually fell. The one-fourth of the population in that persuadable category may have not given Bush improved ratings for two reasons. First, they include a very large share of independents, whose middle ground ratings of Bush changed little. Republicans who gave Bush high ratings in May, gave him still higher ratings in June; Democrats, who gave him very low ratings in May, raised him a bit, though their ratings were still quite low. Second, the persuadables, a group that pays less attention to politics, did not see the gains on the economy and Iraq that others discerned. When compared with polling of 4,117 people from May 17 through 31, the general public in mid-June gave Bush modestly improved ratings on his handling of his job as president, the economy and the war on terrorism and was more likely than before to think he had a "clear plan" for success in Iraq. But on none of those measures did the persuadables give him improved ratings. "Since Reagan's death and the ceremonies honoring him that dominated the news," said Adam Clymer, political director of the survey, "politicians and pollsters have been speculating on whether the Reagan aura would enhance Bush's image. First Bush and then Kerry have started running television advertisement stressing that they were 'optimistic,' plainly trying to identify with Reagan's own sunny perspective on America," Clymer said. Nevertheless, the public thought that Bush was more like Reagan, as a person and as a leader, than was Kerry. Republicans gave Bush overwhelming margins on the comparisons. Democrats divided more narrowly and a plurality of them said Kerry, rather than Bush, was more like Reagan as a leader. Independents, who showed a high regard for Reagan's domestic record, which Democrats denied him, clearly saw Bush, not Kerry, as more like Reagan. Despite the lack of influence on persuadable voters, some of the changes in ratings were striking. Bush's gains on knowledgeability erased a lead Kerry had enjoyed on that attribute. And where Kerry had surprisingly stood even with Bush on whether each had "the right kind of experience to be president," Bush regained an incumbent's traditional advantage on that measure. But there was good news for Kerry in another finding. Among the persuadable voters, Bush and Kerry were now even on their ratings as a "strong leader." In May, Bush held an advantage on that attribute. Perhaps the single most importance change between the two polling periods came on the benchmark question of "Do you feel things in this country are generally going in the right direction or do you think things are seriously off on the wrong track?" In May, 33% of the public said "right direction" and 58% said "wrong track." In June the balance was still negative, but the reading improved to 40% saying right direction and 50% saying wrong track. Even persuadable voters were less likely to be critical on this measure; as 52% said the country was going in the wrong direction, compared to 60% in May. Among persuadables, the percentage saying right track remained steady at 27%. Another important measure for Bush was that he regained a majority favoring keeping troops in Iraq until a stable government was formed. Fifty-two percent took that view, while 43% said the troops should leave as soon as possible. In late May, there was a tie, with 47% taking each position. There was also an increase in the share of people rating that nation's economy as good or excellent, up to 27% from 22% in May.But even numbers that improved showed less than robust support for the president. Fifty-two percent approved his handling of his job as president, up from 48% in late May. Disapproval dropped from 49 to 45%. Forty-four percent approved his handling of the economy, up from 41% in May. Fifty-three percent approved his handling of the war on terrorism, up from 49% in May. Those shifts were all statistically significant. But changes in the percentage who approved of Bush's handling of Iraq, from 39% to 41%, or in those who believed the war in Iraq was worth it, from 42% to 43%, were statistically insignificant, considering this poll's margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points and the May survey's margin of two points. That National Annenberg Election Survey, the largest academic election poll, is a project of the Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania (www.AnnenbergPublicPolicyCenter.org). It has been tracking the presidential campaign since Oct. 7, and interviewing will continue until after Election Day. Another major election project of the Annenberg Public Policy Center is FactCheck.org, which tries to hold politicians accountable by exposing false or misleading campaign statements.Visit the Annenbreg Public Policy Center at www.AnnenbergPublicPolicyCenter.orgVisit www.FactCheck.org"