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Bush Inauguration Comes as Nation Still Deeply Divided
"WASHINGTON -- George W. Bush will be sworn in today to lead a nation giving him a lukewarm approval rating, unenthusiastic about his ideas on Social Security, impatient to get out of Iraq and showing no signs of post election reconciliation, according to the University of Pennsylvania's National Annenberg Election Survey.The Annenberg poll mirrors the results of a national survey conducted last week by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, which finds the president beginning his second term with considerably less popular support than other recent incumbent presidents after their reelection. Bush also is proposing a second-term policy agenda that differs in several key respects from the public's, according to the Pew poll. Health care, aid for the poor, and the growing budget deficit are all increasingly important public priorities, while limiting lawsuit awards, making recent tax cuts permanent and tax simplification rank near the bottom of the public's agenda. In the Annenberg survey of 1,202 adults conducted flast week, 53% said they approved of his handling of the presidency, and 65% said his victory in November did not mean public support for his ideas about Social Security. Asked their own opinion, 32% said they supported his ideas and 50% said they did not.On Iraq, 54% said the situation had not been worth going to war over, only 29% said the election Jan. 30 would produce a stable government, and the public was about evenly split over whether the United States should bring troops home as soon as possible or wait until a stable government was established. Sixty-seven percent of all respondents, and 46% of Bush voters, said they agreed with the statement: "Democracy and freedom in Iraq are important, but the war has cost the United States too much in lives and money already to stay much longer."On question after question, the divisions between Bush voters and Kerry voters were very deep, the Annenberg poll found. Seventy percent of Bush voters said the country was "generally going in the right direction," but only 14% of Kerry voters agreed. Similar divisions were found on the health of the economy, the poll found."In many past elections, the losing side had begun to reconcile itself to the elected president by Inauguration Day," noted Adam Clymer, political director of the Annenberg survey. "That is not happening this year. The split we saw in 2004 now amounts to a chasm. On questions that mention Bush's name, the Kerry supporters are anywhere from 60 to 80 percentage points less positive than the Bush voters. Asked to evaluate the idea that Bush could probably be a good president in his second term, 72% of Kerry voters disagree and 63% disagree strongly."The survey also showed some important deteriorations in public opinion about Iraq since the immediate post-election period. In the latest polling, only a third of respondents said Bush had a clear plan for bringing the situation in Iraq to a successful conclusion. And if the elections did not lead to a stable government, only 39% said the United States should stay as long as necessary. Thirty-one percent said the United States should start pulling out promptly anyhow, and another 25% said the United States should pull out sometime later this year. On Social Security, 57% of the public (and 78% of those 18 to 29) said they expected there would not be enough money in the social security system to pay their benefits on retirement. Fifty-seven percent said the system needed major changes, while 33% said it needed only minor changes.They were then asked about a series of proposed changes proposed by various figures. One proposal, raising the current $90,000 per year earnings ceiling on which Social Security taxes are imposed, won strong approval. Sixty-eight percent favored that idea, including 69% of those likely to be affected by any such change, those with incomes of $100,000 or more.Another suggestion, reducing the benefits promised current workers on retirement, drew overwhelming disapproval, with 86% opposing it and only 11% in favor. A downward recalculation of the starting benefits for workers under 55 has been widely touted by Bush Administration officials as an element of the president's ultimate plan, but 87% of Bush voters were opposed.In all age groups, less than a third of respondents favored the idea of raising the current 12.4% Social Security tax paid by workers and employers combined. The cornerstone of President Bush's plans, allowing workers to divert some of those taxes into the stock market, produced about an even split, favored by 47% and opposed by 48%. Younger respondents and Bush supporters liked the idea; older workers and Kerry backers did not.But the percentage of supporters dropped precipitously, to only 18%, when backers were asked if they would still be in favor of the plan if $2 trillion had to be borrowed. That figure is the widely used estimate of how much money would be needed to make up the loss in tax receipts caused by the stock market option and needed to pay benefits for older workers.Moreover, when respondents were told that benefits could go up if the stock market rose and go down if it fell, there was no great enthusiasm for putting money in such a plan, 39% of the 18 to 29 year-olds said they would invest under those conditions, as did 48% of those 30 to 44 but just 33% of those 45 to 64. The Pew poll found that nearly half of Americans (47%) believe the Social Security system now works pretty well and needs only minor changes, with comparable percentages of Republicans and Democrats in agreement on that point. That compares with just 27% who believe that the health care system works fairly well and 36% who say the same about the education system. In principle, Americans are open to the idea of introducing private accounts into the Social Security system. But in practice, the public believes it is more important to retain a guaranteed monthly Social Security benefit than it is to let younger workers invest in private accounts whose value would rise or fall depending on how their investments perform, according to the Pew poll. The preference for a guaranteed Social Security benefit has grown since the end of the 1990s stock market boom -- 65% prefer retaining a guaranteed monthly benefit, compared with 54% in October 2000. The latest survey by the Pew Research Center found half of Americans approve of the president's job performance while 43% disapprove. This is well below the approval ratings enjoyed by Presidents Eisenhower, Nixon, Reagan and Clinton as they began their second term. Bush's lower ranking results from greater disapproval among members of the opposing party than was the case for his reelected predecessors. However, Bush continues to draw an extremely high level of support from the GOP base. Bush's approval rating among his own party (89%) is just as high as his predecessors at the start of their second terms. Looking ahead, the public believes that the military, business corporations and conservative Christians will gain influence in Bush's second term. Among those expected to lose influence in Washington, poor people clearly stand out; 49% believe the influence of poor people will decline, compared with 40% who expressed that view at the start of Bush's first term. Environmentalists, union leaders, and, significantly, older people also are expected to lose influence. In addition, about a third of Americans (34%) say that people like them will have less influence, up from 26% who said that four years ago. Pew's annual assessment of the public's policy priorities reflects the continuing re-emergence of several domestic objectives -- particularly the need to provide health insurance for the uninsured and deal with the problems of the poor, which had faded in importance after the 9/11 terrorism attacks. The deficit also is a growing concern; 56% cite reducing the budget deficit as a top policy priority, up from 40% just two years ago. As was the case last year, defending the country against terrorism and strengthening the economy are viewed as the top priorities facing the president and Congress. But there are substantial partisan divisions behind these figures, the Pew poll found. Among Republicans, defending against terrorist attacks is cited as a top priority far more than any other issue, but fewer Democrats (66%) say the same, placing it well below improving the economy, expanding health insurance, improving education, and securing Medicare and Social Security for the future. In the wake of the contentious presidential campaign, the public expects an even greater level of partisanship in Washington in the year ahead. Roughly six-in-ten (59%) think Democrats and Republicans will oppose each other more than usual, while just 30% believe the two parties will work together. As a point of reference, somewhat more Americans (41%) predicted partisan cooperation at the start of Bush's first term. While the economy and terrorism lead the public's policy agenda, a plurality of Americans (32%) volunteer the war in Iraq as the biggest problem facing the country. As Pew surveys found throughout the presidential campaign, Iraq has propelled foreign policy and defense issues past the economy among the public's concerns. Opinion on the war itself has remained stable in recent months, in spite of the ongoing violence in Iraq. There is little sense that elections in Iraq, scheduled for Jan. 30, will do much to bring stability to the country. About half of Americans (49%) think the situation will not change much after the election, while 29% expect the balloting to lead to greater stability and 14% expect the situation to get worse, according to the Pew poll.Visit the Annenberg Center for Public Policy at www.annenbergpublicpolicycenter.orgVisit the Pew Research Center for the People and Press at www.peoplepress.org"