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America Will Gain Four Million Jobs by End of Next Year
ANN ARBOR, Mich. -- The U.S. economy, which finally posted job gains last year after three straight years of job losses, will add another 4 million jobs through 2006, say University of Michigan economists. "The economy lost 2.7 million payroll jobs from February 2001 to May 2003, but by 2004 the ability of employers to tease more and more output out of fewer workers had about had it," said Saul Hymans, U-M professor emeritus of economics. "That plus renewed business confidence in the strength of the expansion did the trick and produced a sharp jump in jobs."With solid but no longer extraordinary productivity gains, hiring responds to sustained output growth during 2005 and 2006, producing healthy job gains and a gradual improvement in the unemployment rate," he continued. "However, job gains in 2005 and 2006 fall well short of the three million jobs added per year in the 1994 to 2000 period." In their annual spring forecast update of the U.S. economy, Hymans and colleagues Joan Crary and Janet Wolfe predict employment growth of 2.1 million (nonfarm payroll) jobs this year and 1.9 million jobs in 2006. Unemployment is expected to fall from last year's 5.5% average to 5.3% this year and 5.1% next year.The economists say output growth (as measured by real Gross Domestic Product) will back off from the robust 3.9% of 2004 to 3.3 % during 2005 and 3.5% during 2006. "Healthy gains in consumer demand and some rebuilding of inventory stocks pace the growth of real GDP in the first half of this year, but a moderate second-half slowdown results from an easing of residential building and inventory accumulation and net exports take a bigger bite out of the growth rate," Hymans said. "Growth heads back up again in 2006, reflecting somewhat stronger consumption growth and a strong, steady contribution from business capital investment, including commercial and industrial construction."As job growth rises in the next two years, so will inflation and interest rates, although they will remain at fairly low levels, the researchers said.The conventional 30-year mortgage rate will average 6.1% this year and 6.9% next year, after hovering around 5.8% the past two years. The rate for three-month Treasury bills will more than double from 1.4% last year to 3% in 2005 and 3.8% in 2006. The 10-year Treasury bond rate edges upward from last year's 4.3% to 4.6% this year and 5.4% next year. Core inflation, which was an exceptionally low 1.8% in 2004, will rise to 2.2% this year and 2.6% in 2006, the researchers concluded.The forecast also predicts that:Oil prices will gradually retreat later this year from the $50-$55 per barrel range expected through mid-year to $47 per barrel by the fourth quarter 2005 and to $38 per barrel by the end of next year.Private housing starts will stay strong at 1.96 million units in 2005 and 1.88 million in 2006, following last year's 1.95 million---the highest annual total since 1978.Sales of light vehicles will remain steady at 16.7 million units in 2005 and increase to 17 million next year, which would make 2006 the third-best on record."