US Metros Struggle as They Drive National Economy
WASHINGTON -- The nation's cities are struggling more economically this yeat than they did last year, a new report from The U.S. Conference of Mayors shows. When the data are complied, one-third of the 363 U.S. metropolitan areas and their surrounding suburbs are projected to show stagnant or declining economies for 2013.
That number has increased significantly since last year, when only one-fifth, or 73, of U.S. metropolitan areas experienced no growth.
The report also shows that while 244 of the metropolitan areas will see some measure of economic growth this year, almost 40% will grow only 1% or less. "This report makes clear how critical metropolitan areas are to our nation's economy and ongoing recovery," said Scott Smith, mayor of Mesa, Ariz., and president of the Mayors Conference. These economies account for more than 90% of gross domestic product, nearly 86% of the population and almost 86% of all jobs.” So if our metro areas aren't doing well,” he said, “the entire country suffers."
The report includes figures for the Youngstown-Warren-Boardman SMA (standard metropolitan area), which ranks 122nd on the 2014 list for “gross metropolitan product” with a projected $18.1 billion compared with $18 billion in 2013. In terms of gross metropolitan product as a share of gross state product (the state economy), the region is at $13.81 billion, up 2.7%. In annual real gross metropolitan product rates of growth, the change for 2014 is projected at 1.2% compared to a -0.9% this year.
A total nonfarm employment growth rate of 1.1% for 2013-2014 puts the region at No. 258 on the list of 363 regions; for 2012-2013; the rate was 0.4%.
While the economic outlook for metro areas in the United States falls somewhere south of glowing, the report also shows that the economic output of many of the 363 metros remains stronger than that of some foreign countries. For example, of the world's 100 largest metropolitan areas, 36 are in the United States. New York has the 13th largest economy in the world, Los Angeles 20th, Chicago 23rd and Houston 30th. And the Phoenix-Mesa metro economy, with more than $201.7 billion of economic output annually, is the 65th largest economy in the world, -- bigger than the economies of Peru or New Zealand.
"This report shows that our nation's cities and their metro areas are real players on the international scene," said Tom Cochran, conference CEO and executive director, in a prepared statement. "If we choose to ignore our metro areas, we will do so at our own peril. To stay competitive as a country, we must invest in their economic growth and job generating power."
Other key findings of the report, which offers forecasts rather than actual figures:
- 244 U.S. metros in 2013 will see economic expansion, although 93 (38%) will grow by 1% or less. This is down from 2012 when 290 metros experienced real economic growth, and in 2011 when 265 metros saw growth. Nearly all metros, 358, are slated for growth in 2014.
- In 2013, the report forecasts that GDP will expand by 1.7%, while urban domestic product will grow slightly less at 1.6%.
- In 2013, metros of Texas will again top the list of fastest growing in real gross domestic product: Midland tops the list at 7.3%. Odessa is second at 6.4% and Corpus Christi is 10th at 3.8%.
- Among the largest SMAs, New York and Los Angeles will see their economies increase by more than $23.5 billion, or 2%, and $15.1 billion, or 2.3%, respectively, while Chicago will see a jump of $6.3 billion, or 1.3%.
- In 2012, 92.3% of the jobs added, 89.2% of growth in real GDP, and nearly all of the U.S. population gains were in metro areas.
- In 2013, U.S. SMAs will contain 86% of total nonfarm employment, 90% of real GDP, and 85.7% of the population.
- The impact of sequestration, the federal shutdown and tepid economic growth in Europe has hindered the U.S. economy; employment will grow only 1.5% and real income will rise by 1.4%.
- 290 metros will see some employment gains this year while 73 will see flat or declining employment.
The U.S. Conference of Mayors is the official nonpartisan organization of cities with populations of 30,000 or more. There are 1,295 such cities in the country today and each city is represented in the conference by its chief elected official, the mayor.
Published by The Business Journal, Youngstown, Ohio.
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