Trade Group Expects Marginal Gains in Holiday Sales
WASHINGTON – Sales during November and December are expected to increase marginally, by 3.9%, to $602.1 billion over 2012’s actual 3.5% holiday season sales growth, the National Retail Federation says. Its forecast is higher than the 10-year average holiday sales growth of 3.3%.
The holiday season, which can make up anywhere from 20% to 40% of a retailer’s annual sales, accounts for approximately 20% of total industry annual sales, according to the federation.
“Our forecast is a realistic look at where we are right now in this economy – balancing continued uncertainty in Washington and an economy that has been teetering on incremental growth for years,” said Matthew Shay, NRF president and CEO, in a prepared statement. “Overall, retailers are optimistic for the 2013 holiday season, hoping political debates over government spending and the debt ceiling do not erase any economic progress we’ve already made.”
On the government shutdown and the federation’s holiday outlook, Shay said, “Our forecast is also somewhat hinging on Congress and the Administration’s actions over the next 45 days. Without action, we face the potential of losing the faith Americans have in their leaders, and the pursuant decrease in consumer confidence.”
Economic variables, such as growth in the domestic housing marketing and the increased consumer appetite to buy larger-ticket items, give retailers reason to be hopeful about solid holiday season gains, the report found.
“The economy continues to expand, albeit at an unspectacular pace,” added Jack Kleinhenz, chief economist for the federation. “For consumers to turn out this holiday season, we need to see steady improvements in income and job growth as well as an agreement from Washington that puts the economic recovery first.”
Retailers are expected to hire between 720,000 and 780,000 seasonal workers this holiday season, in line with the actual 720,500 hired in 2012, a 13% year-over-year increase from 2011.
Published by The Business Journal, Youngstown, Ohio.
CLICK HERE to subscribe to our free daily email headlines and to our twice-monthly print edition.