Online Retail Sales in US Headed for $508B by 2020
OWEST PALM BEACH, Fla. -- U.S. online retail sales are projected to reach $508 billion by 2020, representing a market share of nearly 14% (17% if food retailing is excluded), says FTI Consulting Inc. This compares to online sales of $260 billion last year -- a compound annual growth rate of nearly 11% from 2012 through 2020.
FTI Consulting Inc. is a business advisory firm with more than 4,100 employees in 25 countries.
Its previous forecast was raised some 10% to reflect stronger than anticipated online sales that began in late 2012. Much of the faster pace is credited to the proliferation of tablet computers, which have facilitated online commerce for millions of users.
"The influence of the online channel has increasingly become a central component of the holiday shopping season, and our upward revisions reflect the fact that online sales in 2013 have exceeded our previous expectations," said Steve Coulombe, senior managing director in FTI’s corporate finance/restructuring division and its retail and consumer products practice, in a prepared statement. "Tablet-enabled mobile commerce is indisputably responsible for much of this growth. The tablet has been groundbreaking for the retail industry as we know it, knocking down barriers in mobile transacting that the smartphone couldn't."
FTI Consulting analyzed the portion of adjusted general merchandise, apparel and accessories, furniture and other sales -- sales attributable to the nonstore channel (including both online and catalog/call center sales) over the past two decades, noting that the online channel's increasing influence on holiday shopping began in 2009. This trend has continued unabated the last three holiday seasons, with year-over-year sales growth in the online channel averaging 17% annually.
With shoppers less willing to stand in long lines for Black Friday promotions and the continued diminishing of catalog and call centers, customers have become more likely to shop online during the holiday season than they are the rest of the year, Coulombe said. "We've seen this trend emerge over the past few years as Cyber Monday has grown in prominence.”
Published by The Business Journal, Youngstown, Ohio.
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