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U.S. Multinationals Report Further Improvement
NEW YORK -- Senior U.S. executives report a brighter business climate in the first quarter of 2004, but see only incremental gains in jobs and major new investments over the next 12 months, according to PricewaterhouseCoopers' Management Barometer. Companies forecasting the strongest revenue growth plan higher levels of new jobs and capital investments, suggesting that more new jobs and greater investments would result from higher growth.Nearly half the surveyed companies, 46%, down from 49% in the last quarter of 2003, expect to increase their work force over the next 12 months. Some 39% plan no change, and 15% foresee a work force reduction. Overall, surveyed companies expect to add an average of 0.6% to their collective workforce over the next 12 months, up slightly from an average of 0.3% in the previous quarter.Companies planning to increase their work force project revenue growth of 13.2%, more than double the 6.2% planned by those not expecting a gain in net jobs.More technology and service companies will be adding workers. Viewed separately:63% of technology companies expect to hire, adding an average of 3.5% to their combined work forces. In contrast, only 38% of non-techs plan to hire, adding an average of 0.1%.56% of service businesses expect to hire, adding an average of 2.4% to their combined work forces. In comparison, 42% of product sector companies plan to reduce their work forces slightly -- by an average of 0.4%.Professionals and technicians are most in demand, with 27% of respondents planning hires in these fields. Other in-demand jobs are production workers (cited by 17% of respondents), sales and marketing workers (17%), white collar support personnel (16%) and skilled workers (13%)."Hiring plans remain modest despite solid growth projections, reflecting the increased productivity that has been built into companies in the past few years," says Frank Brown, global leader of PricewaterhouseCoopers' Advisory practice. "It appears it will take a prolonged recovery and even stronger business climate to improve the jobs picture."Modest Gain in Those Planning Major New InvestmentsFully 54% of surveyed companies expect to make major new capital investments over the next 12 months, up from 51% the previous quarter. The planned level of spending averages 7.6% of revenue, in line with the prior quarter's 7.8%. Companies planning investments expect to grow revenues by 11.3% over the next 12 months, compared to 7.1% for those without investment plans. Increased budgeting over the next 12 months is expected for: information technology, planned by 44 %; new product or service introductions, 41%; and business acquisitions, 40%."The companies most willing to invest are those who are the most confident in their future business prospects," says Brown. "The investments they make will contribute to economic growth."In first quarter interviewing, senior executives strengthened their assessment of the business climate:93% of respondents said the U.S. economy is growing, up from 79% in the fourth quarter of 2003.85%, a three-year high, remained optimistic about prospects for the next 12 months. Just 2% were pessimistic and 13% uncertain.67% were optimistic about the world economy; 2% were pessimistic and 31% uncertain.Corporate revenue growth targets held steady at 9.4% for the next 12 months -- well ahead of the 6% to 7.2% range of the past three years. Service and technology businesses were comparatively bullish, expecting growth of 13.7% and 9.9%, respectively. Product sector businesses project growth of 7.6% and non-techs, 9.2%.Potential barriers to growth continued to shift away from recessionary worries, and toward concerns more often associated with a healthy economy, such as legislative or regulatory pressures, competition from foreign markets, and monetary exchange rates."There's no question that the long-anticipated recovery is in full swing. Business leaders have maintained or increased their projections and are managing their companies from a more optimistic point of view," Brown says.PricewaterhouseCoopers' Management Barometer is a quarterly survey of top executives in a cross-section of large, multinational businesses."