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TV Viewers in Battleground States Fall for False Ads
PHILADELPHIA -- Americans like to say they don't trust television commercials, but a new survey conducted by the University of Pennsylvania's National Annenberg Public Policy Center shows that when it comes to political ads, many people absorb and believe what they see, no matter how dubious its relation to the truth.From April 15 through May 2, 1,026 adults were interviewed in 18 battleground states where the George W. Bush and John Kerry campaigns have been showing commercials since March. In those states, 61% of the public believe Bush "favors sending American jobs overseas," 56% believe Kerry "voted for higher taxes 350 times," and 72% say 3 million jobs have been lost in Bush's presidency. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus three percentage points.All those statements and three others that gained substantial but not majority support are not true, as FactCheck.Org, has demonstrated in great detail. FactCheck.Org, a project of the Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania, tries to hold politicians accountable by exposing false or misleading campaign statements, and its findings are on its web site, http://factcheck.org.FactCheck's findings include a critique of a Kerry campaign commercial saying "George Bush says sending jobs overseas 'makes sense' for America." But Bush never said that, nor did he sign a document saying so. What he signed was a message accompanying the annual report of his Council of Economic Advisers, a report that asserted that it made sense for the United States to buy goods from other countries which produced them more cheaply than the United States could --a standard, if currently impolitic, economic thought.Similarly, FactCheck has scalded Bush commercials (and the president himself) for saying that Kerry "voted for higher taxes 350 times." The list they use to support the claim includes occasions when Kerry voted to keep taxes at existing levels, or supported lower tax cuts than Republicans preferred. Right now, Kerry is calling for higher taxes only on people earning more than $200,000 per year while promising new cuts for middle-income families. As the director of the Annenberg Center, Brooks Jackson, observed, the Bush campaign could have been correct if only they had said "Kerry voted 350 times for 'higher taxes than Republicans prefer.'"The 3 million jobs claim is made frequently in Kerry speeches and campaign documents and in at least one campaign ad that says "Under George Bush, three million Americans have lost their jobs." In the primary campaign, various Democrats used it. At one point last year, there were 2.7 million fewer jobs than there were when Bush took office, although the jobs deficit now is under 2 million.But the three million figure has become such a part of conventional political wisdom that even a majority of Republicans in battleground states -- 54% -- believe it is either definitely true or probably true. So do 81% of Democrats in those states, along with 78% of independents.Three other dubious claims did not achieve majority acceptance in the battleground states of Arizona, Arkansas, Delaware, Florida, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Missouri, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington, West Virginia and Wisconsin.But one came close. Forty-six percent , including a majority of independents, agreed that "John Kerry wants to raise gasoline taxes by 50 cents a gallon," a claim of Bush ads based on one statement ten years ago that he now disavows. Forty-one percent said it was not true.Thirty-four percent said it was definitely or probably true that Kerry "wants to raise taxes by 900 billion dollars" -- a claim of Bush ads that Kerry denies. But 50% said that was probably or definitely not true.Forty-three percent said it was true that "George W. Bush raided Social Security to pay for tax cuts for millionaires," a claim made by an ad for the Media Fund, one of the groups backing the Kerry candidacy with ads in battleground states. But 45% said it was definitely or probably not true. The Media Fund asserts that the charge is justified because tax cuts reducing millionaires' taxes caused the federal budget deficits that followed the surpluses of the last years of the Clinton Administration. Deficits are also caused by spending, on items ranging from defense to highways to education, to say nothing of the impact of a recession. They say deficits threaten the ability to pay its Social Security obligations.Nineteen percent of the respondents in those 18 battleground states said they had learned something from the commercials. But they were not much more likely to believe the strained claims of the political wars than were the self-proclaimed skeptics. Fifty-one percent of the believers said it was true that Kerry wanted to raise taxes by $900 billion, while only 36% of the skeptics said so.But the majority who claimed they had learned nothing from the ads were more likely to bad things about Bush. Sixty-three percent of the skeptics for example, believed that he favored sending American jobs overseas, compared to 52% of the believers. That National Annenberg Election Survey, the largest academic election poll, is a project of the Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania. It has been tracking the presidential campaign since October 7, and interviewing will continue until after Election Day. Visit the Annenberg Public Policy Center at www.AnnenbergPublicPolicyCenter.orgVisit Fact Check at www.FactCheck.Org."