Thursday, February 16, 2012HAMDEN, Conn. -- New poll results from Quinnipiac University show Rick Santorum leading the field among Republican voters in Ohio, three weeks ahead of the state's March 6 primary, although he would fare worse than rival Mitt Romney against President Barack Obama.
The former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania leads the GOP field with support from 36% of Ohio likely Republican primary voters, followed by 29% for Romney, 20% for Newt Gingrich and 9% for Ron Paul. Underscoring the fluidity that has characterized the Republicans' nominating process to date, 50% of the GOP primary voters said they might change their mind before the Ohio primary.
In hypothetical general election matchups against Obama, Santorum would get 41% to Obama's 47%. Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, would provide a more competitive contest, garnering 44% of the vote to 46% for Obama, within the margin of error for the survey, conducted Feb. 7-12. Obama would beat former House Speaker Gingrich by 12 percentage points, 50% to 38%.
Riding the momentum from his trio of victories last week in Minnesota, Colorado and Missouri, Santorum "has zoomed to the front of the line among likely voters in Ohio," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. What remains unclear, he continued, is whether that momentum will fizzle, as happened to Romney in South Carolina after winning New Hampshire, as happened to Gingrich in Florida after his South Carolina win, and as happened to Santorum himself in New Hampshire after winning Iowa.
The poll also finds more Ohio voters view Romney him unfavorably than favorably, 37% favorable to 40% unfavorable among registered voters as a whole. He fares better among Republicans, with a 61%-25% favorable-unfavorable split. Santorum, whose overall favorability was a 25%-25% split in January, is now 35% favorable to 22% unfavorable among all voters and 62% favorable to 7% unfavorable among likely Republican primary voters.
"For the first time, numerically more voters in Ohio view Romney unfavorably than favorably," Brown said. "His pattern in the earlier primary states has been to use his money advantage to run a large number of negative ads on his biggest challenger. But doing so now risks further increasing Romney's own unfavorables as a side effect of throwing the mud himself. Yet, Romney may feel the need to raise questions about the lesser-known Santorum in the eyes of GOP voters."
The GOP's Ohio prospects against Obama don’t improve with the hypothetical inclusion of U.S. Sen. Rob Portman on a Romney-led ticket. Given a choice between Obama running with Vice President Joe Biden and a proposed Romney-Portman ticket, Ohio voters opted for the Democrats, 47% to 43%.
"At least in this survey, the inclusion of Rob Portman as vice president does not appear to help the GOP ticket," said Brown.
In the tight general election matchup between Obama and Romney, the president's margin is built upon his 45%-41% edge among independent voters. Obama carries Democrats 88% to 6%, while Romney takes Republicans 87% to 6%. Men favor Romney 49% to 42%, while women back Obama 49% to 39%.
Ohio voters split evenly, 47% to 48%, on whether Obama deserves a second term in the Oval Office and give him a similarly split 47%-48% job approval, his best score in the past year.
In Ohio's U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown leads Republican Josh Mandel, 48% to 35%. Voters approve, 47% to 34%, of the job Brown is doing and 46% say he deserves a second term.
Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,421 registered voters. The poll of the Republican primary includes 553 voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.2%.
Published by The Business Journal, Youngstown, Ohio.