RALEIGH, N.C. -- Ohio voters might not be thrilled with President Obama, but they're inclined to vote for him now over Mitt Romney, even if the GOP challenger puts a prominent Ohio Republican on the ticket, finds a new poll conducted by Public Policy Polling.
The latest Public Policy Polling survey of Ohioans, conducted May 3-6, shows Obama leading Romney by 7 percentage points, 50% to 43%, essentially unchanged from the incumbent's 49%-42% lead in late January. The margin of error for the survey, conducted among 875 Ohio voters, is +/-3.3%.
Obama's own popularity hasn't improved – he remains at 48% approval and disapproval in the January and May surveys – and Romney has grown more personally popular, as 37% see him favorably and 53% view him unfavorably in the May poll, as opposed to 28%-56% in January. However, Obama is shoring up his base, getting 88% of the Democratic vote, up from 84%, while Romney enjoys 82% Republican support, up from 80%. Obama also leads among independents, 43% to 40% .
“Barack Obama’s led by 7 points or more now on out last three Ohio polls,” said Dean Debnam, president of Public Policy Polling, a company whose work is considered to lean toward Democrats. “It seems unlikely he’ll win the state by that much in November but it does mean he has some margin for error.”
U.S. Sen. Rob Portman, R-Ohio, considered one of the leading choices of the Republican establishment for the vice presidential slot on the ticket, would only bring Romney up to 44% and Obama down to 49%, improving Romney's numbers slighting among Republicans but not moving the needle at all with Democrats or independents.
Despite having served as U.S. trade representative and director of the Office of Budget and Management under President George W. Bush, the PPP survey indicates Portman remains one of the most anonymous senators in the country. More than a third of Ohioans -- 36% -- have no opinion about him, 31% approve of him and 33% disapprove.
Romney would fare worse against Obama if paired with either of two other prominent Ohio Republicans, Gov. John Kasich or House Speaker John Boehner, neither of whom are typically mentioned among the potential running mates and with either men on his ticket, Romney would still face a 7-percentage-point gap. A Romney-Kasich ticket would get 43% to 50% for a ticket with Obama and Vice President Joe Biden, while a Romney-Boehner ticket would get 42% to Obama Biden's 49%.
Both Kasich and Boehner remain unpopular in Ohio a year after a bruising fight over legislation to limit collective bargaining rights that Kasich signed onto law but was rejected in a statewide referendum, and battles over increasing the debt ceiling last summer, a fight widely seen as damaging Republicans. Kasich has a 39%-49% approval-disapproval spread, improved from 33%-53% in February; Boehner’s is 34%-50%.
“I wouldn’t underestimate the relevance of Kasich and Boehner’s weakness in the state to Obama’s current strength there,” wrote Tom Jensen on the PPP blog. “Ohio voted GOP in 2010 and it hasn’t really liked the way that turned out -- that will impact the willingness of voters to pick Republican again this time around.”
The Ohio poll illustrates the GOP’s problems with women and young voters. Obama enjoys advantages of 55% to 36% among women -- a gap of nearly 20 percentage points in the demographic -- and an even larger advantage among those under age 30, 62% to 30%.
“If you extend the definition of ‘young’ voters to those under 45, Obama still holds a massive advantage,” at 56% to 35%, Jensen said. Romney wins seniors, but only has a 4-perncentage point edge there, 49% to 45%.
Published by The Business Journal, Youngstown, Ohio.