NEW YORK -- Growth in consumer spending will likely continue in the summer, followed by a slowdown in the fall, according to Deloitte Research's Leading Index of Consumer Spending. The expected decline in growth signifies the first deceleration in consumer spending since the spring 2003, and is largely a result of fewer tax reductions."Consumers will continue to spend sizeable tax refunds over the next few months on high-priced goods and services, such as consumer electronics and home improvements," says Carl Steidtmann, Ph.D,. Deloitte Research's chief economist and author of the monthly index. "However, we've reached an inflection point in the index. In four to six months, the stimulating effects created by the tax cuts will reach a peak, resulting in a smaller amount of disposable cash and causing consumer spending to grow at a slower rate."Highlights of the index, which tracks consumer cash flow as an indicator of future consumer spending, include:Sizeable tax refunds are driving strong consumer spending through May 2004. Total refunds are still expected to run up to 50 % more than the prior year, but will be slow in coming. Tax refunds have lagged earlier this year due to increased complexity in recent tax changes. Consumer cash flow will begin to wane after May. Real home prices rose sharply in February, posting one of the largest single month increases in over a year. The rise in home prices creates a pool of future cash from which consumers can draw upon through the process of home mortgage refinancing. Real wages are up a very modest 0.2% from a year ago. Rising health care costs continue to be a barrier to real wage increases. A further tightening of the labor market and relief from higher health care costs are necessary to produce an increase in real wages. Declines in unemployment claims continue to contribute to slowed consumer spending growth.Consistent with the 308,000 jobs created last month, fewer unemployment claims may indicate job creation and development of a more stable economy. The index, comprising four components -- tax burden, initial unemployment claims, real wages and real home prices -- rose 4.89% in March, down slightly from a revised gain of 5.03% the previous month.Deloitte, a national professional services firms, provides audit, tax, financial advisory services and consulting through nearly 30,000 people in more than 80 U.S. cities. Visit Deloitte: www.deloitte.com/us"